Post by OverseerCWFJ on Sept 13, 2004 15:33:02 GMT -5
The lower marriage rates, combined with declining fertility, also raise questions -- ones Europe and Japan are already facing -- about whether smaller future generations will be able to support the growing retirement and health needs of the huge numbers of older people. Can the country pump out enough educated workers to supply the labor force with the talent it needs to keep productivity strong? Will minority groups and immigrants, who tend to have higher fertility rates, gain more power? The answers to these questions will shape social policy and force corporations to rethink their human-capital strategies, product lineups, and marketing missions. Because unmarried America has such diverse constituencies -- from urban swingers to straitlaced widows -- it will also mean more micromarketing to cater to these finely tuned population segments.
Rumblings of a Backlash
The tensions between traditional families and the new households are already starting to spill out all over society -- in offices, neighborhoods, and political campaigns. Pollsters Celinda Lake and Ed Goeas say the marriage gap could become an issue in the 2004 Presidential campaign since George W. Bush draws so much of his support from the wedded, who give him approval ratings 15 percentage points higher than the single or divorced. Meanwhile, the numbers of Democratic-favoring singles continues to grow in number and power. There are also rumblings of a political backlash as nontraditional families balk at lopsided tax burdens. Dual-income, kid-free cohabitants, and elderly retirees on fixed incomes, for example, are joining forces to oppose school bond issues, a growing argument now that only 20% of the electorate has children. Charlotte Ness, a 55-year-old childless single, fumes about the way she pays the same school taxes as the married couples in her Vienna (Va.) neighborhood but will only get half the capital-gains break on the sale of her home. "It's nothing other than theft by a government of married people," she says.
Some singles are challenging zoning laws that limit the number of unrelated people who can live together, while others are forming homeowner associations that ban kids. Then there are those who are working to bar travel-industry practices that force them to pay 40% to 100% more for single-occupancy hotel rooms as well as auto and health-club rules that limit discounts to spouses. "You never used to have this," says David Popenoe, co-director of the National Marriage Project at Rutgers University. "Those without children and those who aren't coupled have begun to mobilize much more than they did in the past."
Also fueling the demographic change: More people are coming out of the closet and setting up same-sex households. And most everyone, on average, is living longer, which will make for an expanding population of widows as boomers age. Meanwhile, more seniors are divorcing so they can qualify for Medicaid, while others are living together instead of remarrying to avoid losing pension-survivor or health benefits. "Sometimes you have to break the rules to make a living," says 64-year-old Darlene Davis, who lives with her boyfriend of 19 years, Cary Cohen.
Marrying Cohen would mean losing her deceased husband's health benefits, which she relies on as a heart-attack survivor with three stents. Last year, the state of Virginia refused to renew her day-care license because of old laws on the books that classify cohabitation as illegal. But after the American Civil Liberties Union took up the case, officials relented. "In the spiritual sense, we are husband and wife," she says. "But the law just doesn't see it that way."
Neither does the workplace, where singles get less and pay more. Married people often make more than unmarrieds, with married men earning an average 11% more than their never-married male colleagues, according to the Federal Reserve. The unmarried, most importantly those with kids, also suffer higher unemployment. And aside from subsidized health coverage for spouses, there are plenty of other inequities. Social Security is one of the biggest redistributions machines there is: Married and unmarried co-workers pay the same amount in employment taxes, but married people can leave their Social Security benefits to surviving spouses, while the unmarried can't leave them to surviving partners.
Pension Penalties
That's one reason why, given the gender pay gap, single working mothers often end up with far less in their old age than lifelong homemakers; one-earner married couples receive average benefit returns that are up to 85% higher than those of single males; and African Americans, who have low marriage and life-expectancy rates, sometimes end up subsidizing the retirement benefits of millionaire whites. In fact, one of every three black male youths will pay for retirement benefits they will never see.
Pensions also certainly come with big penalties for singles. If a married worker dies before starting to receive the benefits, a surviving spouse can inherit them. For singles, they go back into the pot. April Murphy, an unmarried 38-year-old who has worked as a flight attendant for American Airlines Inc. for 11 years, found this out when she tried to name her sister as her designate on her traditional pension. The company told her that was fine. But if Murphy dies even one day before her retirement, her sister won't see a penny. "When I'm pushing a beverage cart, the flight attendant on the other end is getting more just because she has a spouse or child or two," says Murphy. "How can you compensate one employee more than the other?" Murphy was also stunned to learn that she had no legal recourse: Federal anti-discrimination laws protect just about every class -- race, religion, gender, age -- except the unmarried.
Although marriage and fertility rates are at their lowest point in history across the industrialized world, an estimated 85% of Americans will still marry at least once in their lives -- even though that is a huge drop from the historic high of 95% in the 1950s. Though Rutgers' Popenoe believes that marriage rates will continue to slide, there are some countertrends that could tilt the statistics back toward a married majority. An unforeseen legalization of gay marriage or an even bigger surge in married immigrants -- who are already propping up population growth -- could dampen the trend. Hispanics, the fastest-growing minority group, tend to have higher rates of marriage, given their religiously rooted family values. Some demographers point to a late-1990s leveling-off of divorce rates and the numbers of kids living with single parents as evidence that the institution may be approaching a turnaround. But most chalk this development up to the booming economy and welfare reform. Nothing less than a massive return to traditional values, they argue, will reverse the trend.
Judging by the attitudes of young people, that seems unlikely. Fully 54% of female high school seniors say they believe that having a child outside of marriage is a worthwhile lifestyle, up from 33% in 1980, according to the University of Michigan Survey Research Center. And 40% of female twentysomethings would consider having a baby on their own if they reached their mid-30s and hadn't found the right man to marry. (Go to Part VI)
Rumblings of a Backlash
The tensions between traditional families and the new households are already starting to spill out all over society -- in offices, neighborhoods, and political campaigns. Pollsters Celinda Lake and Ed Goeas say the marriage gap could become an issue in the 2004 Presidential campaign since George W. Bush draws so much of his support from the wedded, who give him approval ratings 15 percentage points higher than the single or divorced. Meanwhile, the numbers of Democratic-favoring singles continues to grow in number and power. There are also rumblings of a political backlash as nontraditional families balk at lopsided tax burdens. Dual-income, kid-free cohabitants, and elderly retirees on fixed incomes, for example, are joining forces to oppose school bond issues, a growing argument now that only 20% of the electorate has children. Charlotte Ness, a 55-year-old childless single, fumes about the way she pays the same school taxes as the married couples in her Vienna (Va.) neighborhood but will only get half the capital-gains break on the sale of her home. "It's nothing other than theft by a government of married people," she says.
Some singles are challenging zoning laws that limit the number of unrelated people who can live together, while others are forming homeowner associations that ban kids. Then there are those who are working to bar travel-industry practices that force them to pay 40% to 100% more for single-occupancy hotel rooms as well as auto and health-club rules that limit discounts to spouses. "You never used to have this," says David Popenoe, co-director of the National Marriage Project at Rutgers University. "Those without children and those who aren't coupled have begun to mobilize much more than they did in the past."
Also fueling the demographic change: More people are coming out of the closet and setting up same-sex households. And most everyone, on average, is living longer, which will make for an expanding population of widows as boomers age. Meanwhile, more seniors are divorcing so they can qualify for Medicaid, while others are living together instead of remarrying to avoid losing pension-survivor or health benefits. "Sometimes you have to break the rules to make a living," says 64-year-old Darlene Davis, who lives with her boyfriend of 19 years, Cary Cohen.
Marrying Cohen would mean losing her deceased husband's health benefits, which she relies on as a heart-attack survivor with three stents. Last year, the state of Virginia refused to renew her day-care license because of old laws on the books that classify cohabitation as illegal. But after the American Civil Liberties Union took up the case, officials relented. "In the spiritual sense, we are husband and wife," she says. "But the law just doesn't see it that way."
Neither does the workplace, where singles get less and pay more. Married people often make more than unmarrieds, with married men earning an average 11% more than their never-married male colleagues, according to the Federal Reserve. The unmarried, most importantly those with kids, also suffer higher unemployment. And aside from subsidized health coverage for spouses, there are plenty of other inequities. Social Security is one of the biggest redistributions machines there is: Married and unmarried co-workers pay the same amount in employment taxes, but married people can leave their Social Security benefits to surviving spouses, while the unmarried can't leave them to surviving partners.
Pension Penalties
That's one reason why, given the gender pay gap, single working mothers often end up with far less in their old age than lifelong homemakers; one-earner married couples receive average benefit returns that are up to 85% higher than those of single males; and African Americans, who have low marriage and life-expectancy rates, sometimes end up subsidizing the retirement benefits of millionaire whites. In fact, one of every three black male youths will pay for retirement benefits they will never see.
Pensions also certainly come with big penalties for singles. If a married worker dies before starting to receive the benefits, a surviving spouse can inherit them. For singles, they go back into the pot. April Murphy, an unmarried 38-year-old who has worked as a flight attendant for American Airlines Inc. for 11 years, found this out when she tried to name her sister as her designate on her traditional pension. The company told her that was fine. But if Murphy dies even one day before her retirement, her sister won't see a penny. "When I'm pushing a beverage cart, the flight attendant on the other end is getting more just because she has a spouse or child or two," says Murphy. "How can you compensate one employee more than the other?" Murphy was also stunned to learn that she had no legal recourse: Federal anti-discrimination laws protect just about every class -- race, religion, gender, age -- except the unmarried.
Although marriage and fertility rates are at their lowest point in history across the industrialized world, an estimated 85% of Americans will still marry at least once in their lives -- even though that is a huge drop from the historic high of 95% in the 1950s. Though Rutgers' Popenoe believes that marriage rates will continue to slide, there are some countertrends that could tilt the statistics back toward a married majority. An unforeseen legalization of gay marriage or an even bigger surge in married immigrants -- who are already propping up population growth -- could dampen the trend. Hispanics, the fastest-growing minority group, tend to have higher rates of marriage, given their religiously rooted family values. Some demographers point to a late-1990s leveling-off of divorce rates and the numbers of kids living with single parents as evidence that the institution may be approaching a turnaround. But most chalk this development up to the booming economy and welfare reform. Nothing less than a massive return to traditional values, they argue, will reverse the trend.
Judging by the attitudes of young people, that seems unlikely. Fully 54% of female high school seniors say they believe that having a child outside of marriage is a worthwhile lifestyle, up from 33% in 1980, according to the University of Michigan Survey Research Center. And 40% of female twentysomethings would consider having a baby on their own if they reached their mid-30s and hadn't found the right man to marry. (Go to Part VI)
